Thursday Night Items

I hope Chucky and Menendez

co-chair the DSCC together. Chuck can't dedicate as much time in 2010 but should still have a big role in strategy. I'm sure they could work out some kind of power sharing deal and then you would have two money machines working for the DSCC.

Also it will be a hard fought race but I honestly can't see how Landrieu loses. If it were a Republican year he would have had a chance but she starts out with a edge and there really isn't any factor that tips JNK's way. Barring a major scandal that's ours.

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by: Populista @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 22:30:42 PM CDT

I used to worry about Landrieu

But she's safe this year. I think she most has to worry about Bobby Jindall in 2014.

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by: Bobby @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 23:02:23 PM CDT

Looking at the 2010 elections.

There are 6 Republican Freshman from the South who were elected in 2004 based on George W. Bush's coattails.
Mel Martinez(R-FL)
Johnny Isakson(R-GA)
Diaper Vitter(R-LA)
Richard Burr(R-NC)
Tom Coburn(R-OK)
Jim DeMint(R-SC)
Johnny Isakson(R-GA)and Jim DeMint(R-SC)are favored to get re-lected.
Mel Martinez(R-FL)and Richard Burr(R-NC) are highly vulnerable to defeat.
Vitter(R-LA)is vulnerable if Charlie Melancon-decides to run.
Coburn(R-OK)is vulnerable if Brad Henry decides to run.
Freshman Republican Senators from the non South.
Lisa Murkowski(R-AK)is pretty safe.
John Thune(R-SD) is vulnerable if Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin runs.

Like 2008- We are not going to see that much Democratic Senators retiring in 2010.
Inouye(D-HI)- the third longest serving Senator is going to run again until he becomes President pro Temp.
Pat Leahy(D-VT) chairs the Judiciary Commitee.
Chris Dodd(D-CT) chairs the Banking Committee.
Harry Reid(D-NV) Senate Majority Leader but he is vulnerable to be Daschled. US Rep Dean Heller or Jon Porter.
Barbara Boxer(D-CA) chairs the Environment Public works commitee.
Byron Dorgon(D-ND) chairs the Democratic Policy Committee.

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by: nkpolitics @ Thu Jul 10, 2008 at 23:11:42 PM CDT

I wouldn't be so sanguine . . .

. . . about 2010.  Our wave won't last that long.  If we take out Stevens this year, Inouye just might take it as a signal that the WWII generation is leaving the Senate, and decide to retire (he has long seen himself as Stevens' ally simply because of their shared experience as war veterans from outside the 48 contiguous states).  If Inouye calls it quits, you can put money on Linda Lingle taking that seat.

Barbara Boxer might be in trouble as well, since the Governator will be term-limited out of running again, and he may well run for Senate.  If he jumps in, Boxer could still win, but it would be nowhere near the cakewalk that it would be against anyone else.

Of the Southern Senators you mention, Martinez is the only one who is definitely in trouble.  Burr might be at slight risk, but overall, those guys are gonna stay put.  And as for South Dakota, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin won't run against Thune just yet.  She'll build up her experience and run for the open seat when Johnson retires.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 08:58:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Regarding Inouye-

Inouye(HI) is the number 3 Senior Democrat in the US Senate. right after Byrd(WV)and Kennedy(MA). In 2012-Byrd(WV) and Kennedy(MA) seat is up for grabs. Both of these Senators are likely to retire in 2012. Once Byrd(WV)and Kennedy(MA) retire- Inouye(HI) becomes next in line as Senate President pro-temp and lets not forget Senator Frank Lautenberg(NJ) is another WWII generation that will be in the US Senate when Inouye(HI) is up for re-election in 2010. Lingle is more likely to run for the Akaka Seat- Akaka(HI)in 2012. has been under Inouye's shadow. Akaka(HI) is more likely retire before Inouye.

I doubt Arnold runs for the US Senate- He is more of an executive type person than a legislature. He is likely to go back into acting like Fred Thompson.

The Burr seat has switched parties repeated.
Since Sam ervin retired in 1974. Robert Morgan(D)in 1974. John east(R)in 1980. Terry Sanford(D)in 1986. Lauch Faircloth(R) in 1992. John Edwards(D) in 1998. Richard Burr(R) in 2004.

Regarding Herseth-Sandlin- She is likely to run for Governor- since her father and grandfather were Governors.

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:58:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I think Kennedy won't retire.

He'll go right on in the Senate until they have to carry him out.

A typical vice of American politics is the avoidance of saying anything real on real issues. -Theodore Roosevelt

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by: wmlawman @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:14:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Reid 2010

Reid will not be beaten by Porter or Heller. Both might lose their house seats this year and even if they don't, it woiuld be much easier to run for governor when Gibbons decides not to run again.

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by: NVdem @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 01:09:49 AM CDT

I agree that Reid is going to win in 2010 and will defeat Porter or Heller

However the the National Republicans are going to spend all their resources trying to defeat Reid.  

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 06:00:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I Don't

Respect Helms. I won't rip into him because I do think it is classless to rip someone who just died, but if someone stood for almost everything your against you certainly don't have to respect or honor them.

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by: Daniel Z @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 02:18:53 AM CDT

CQPolitics Top 5 Senate Takeovers...DEM STEAMROLL

From CQ: "Yes, just as in the House Top 5, all of the Senate races we see as most likely to change hands are for Republican seats hotly pursued by Democrats. In fact, if this were a list of the Top 10 takeover targets, nine would be Democratic bids to take over Republican seats."

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

Interestingly enough, the five flippers are:
- Virginia
- New Mexico
- New Hampshire
- Colorado
- MISSISSIPPI!

Interestingly enough, there had to be a call made between Mississippi-B and Minnesota for that last spot, as CQ already had VA as DEM Favored and NM as Leans DEM. NH, CO, MS-B, & MN are the toss-up states, so assuming (since everyone else does) that NH & CO round out the top four, that left MS-B and MN as the two choices for the 5th spot.

I personally think Alaska should be a toss-up and not Leans GOP, and that should be the 5th seat, but if not Alaska, then I would put MS-B right up there.  

KELL

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by: ryanlkelly @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 07:32:16 AM CDT

I agree about Virginia, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Colorado

being the top four. Virginia,New Mexico,and Colorado are open seats. They are battleground states trending Democratic. The Republican nominees are controversial wingnut conservatives. VA- unpopular former Governor(Gilmore-R).NM- wingut Congresssman(Pearce-R). CO- wingnut former Congressman(Schafer-R). The Democratic nominee in VA- is a popular former Governor.(Mark Warner-D). NM and CO are popular US Congressman (Tom and Mark Udall- both cousins- from prominent political families in the Western region. New Hampshire is a democratic leaning state with the Democratic challenger as the popular former Governor. Republican incumbent as the conservative ideologue.

Regarding the number 5.
Mississippi-B is a semi open seat. The state has a strong black population.
Alaska- the Republican incumbent is a target of the scandal.

That brings us to the Blue state Republican seats in MN,ME,and OR. Coleman(MN) is vulnerable being an accidential Senator. Collins(ME)and Smith(OR) can go down due to Obama coattails.

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by: nkpolitics @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:35:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shifting

I would probably put Alaska above Mississippi, seeing as polls are showing Begich with a lead and a Wicker-Musgrove dead heat, but I'm not surprised people are giving Musgrove more of an edge. It's an open seat. Begich has to take on a man who's been in the senate more years then he's been alive. But I also think both of these states are in a better position then Minnesota is.

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by: Anthony Distler @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 10:55:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I would agree.

Minnesota is a gigantic disappointment.  That seat could've been ours if we had run ABF-- Anyone But Franken!

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 11:58:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I just have to express . . .

. . . my outrage at John Ensign for making that comment about Coleman getting the "Jewish money."  I hope the Anti-Defamation League goes into full swing and demands an apology.  And, frankly, there is no way that that statement could not be pejorative.  It repeats a hateful cliche that fuels the anti-Semitic sentiments of many uninformed people all over the world. As a proud Jewish citizen, I am furious that a U.S. Senator would give voice to such a sentiment, even if he did so off-handedly.  This has to be called out!

(As a side note, I should add that Norm Coleman is actually only half-Jewish.  But that's neither here nor there).  

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 09:08:21 AM CDT

ABF? Seriously?

You think Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, the Minneapolis fringe candidate with no money, would have beaten Coleman?  Franken knows the issues, continues to raise the most of any challenger in the nation ($4M CoH) and has invested in a strong ground operation.

Rybak, McCollum or Walz would have been excellent candidates, but they are a little like the backup QB on a football team.  Everyone loves them until they get out on the field and show their flaws.

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by: st paul sage @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 13:56:50 PM CDT

Fringe candidates . . .

. . . have won in Minnesota before.  I'm thinking of some guy . . . what was his name, again . . . oh, yeah, PAUL WELLSTONE!  He was a long-shot, with very little in the way of money.  And in spite of that, he won.  I'm not saying that Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is just like Wellstone; I'm just saying that funding is not everything, and, as I have repeated many times before, another famous Paul (along with his collaborator John) reminded the world that money can't buy you love.  That is very true for Al Franken, whose history of incendiary comments is so encyclopedic in length, it would be possible for the Coleman camp to trot out a new "scandal" each week between now and the election.  All the money in the world can't overcome that.  I am very pessimistic about us winning this seat; Franken only wins it if Obama's coattails are supernaturally strong.

And, yes, Rybak and McCollum have flaws that would have undoubtedly surfaced, had they run.  (Walz needs more time in the House before he goes statewide).  But Rybak's and McCollum's respective flaws, whatever they may be, undoubtedly pale in comparison to Franken's lightning-rod persona.  Even though neither of them would have run perfect campaigns (is there ever such thing as a perfect campaign?), they would not have the same Everest-size hurdles that Franken currently faces.  This seat should've been a gimme.  Instead, Franken's egotism got in the way.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 15:22:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Gotta love Wellstone

The guy who ran for state auditor and campaigned on nuclear proliferation while doing so. The good ones are always slightly crazy ;)

I love Wellstone, they just don't make 'em like they used to.

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by: Bobby @ Fri Jul 11, 2008 at 16:12:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

i knew paul wellstone

and jack nelson pallmeyer is no paul wellstone.

he's a left wing professor that's true, but that's where the similarities end.  paul was a great speaker and organizer.  he ran the jesse jackson campaign in 88 and his own campaign for auditor in 86.  he lived in rural minnesota and organized farmers and workers and built a statewide organization.

jack lives in south minneapolis and has a hyphenated name making him sort of weird and exotic even in st paul, much less the suburbs or rural minnesota.

i worked on every one of paul's campaigns and that win in 90 was one of the really special moments in my political life.  but that campaign, and paul himself, was one of a kind.  yet every underfunded, quirky, left-wing candidate claims that he can win just like paul did.  

and are you suggesting that actors, comedians and writers are not fit to run for office because of all their "scandals?"

i know the gop will try to dig up the most offensive bits for SNL and post them in their blogs every week, but nobody reads them and the media won't bite.  you know why?  cos it's not news - unless betty mccollum gets her knickers in a twist.

and that $4M is going to come in very handy for sharing al's message, but also for putting together a great ground organizing team - somthing that i think paul wellstone would really appreciate.
 

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by: st paul sage @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 16:37:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

You had the opportunity to work for Paul...

that is amazing. I've read a lot about that 1990 race he had, if there are such things as miracles in politics that would be near the top of the list.  

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by: Bobby @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 21:21:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not saying . . .

. . . that all actors and comedians are unfit to run for office.  But we're not talking about just any comedian.  Al Franken has made a point of making deliberately aggressive statements in his books and on his radio shows.  It's not his work on SNL that puts him at risk; it's what he's done since then.  Certainly, other actors and entertainers have successfully run for office (the Governator, obviously, in addition to New York Congressman John Hall, former frontman of the band Orleans).  It is Al Franken's particular brand of deliberately incendiary rhetoric that makes him a risky candidate.

I'm jealous that you got to work for Wellstone, and that you actually knew the guy!  Please note that I wasn't equating Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer with Paul Wellstone; I was only trying to point out that fundraising is not everything, and that all the money in the world won't make people warm up to Franken.  My hope wasn't for Nelson-Pallmeyer to be the candidate.  My hope was that, way back at the outset, Rybak or McCollum would've jumped in, garnered more favorability from the public, and won the primary, despite Franken's money advantage.  

Don't get me wrong-- If I were a Minnesota resident, I would bite my lip and vote for Franken this fall.  I'm just saying, I don't know how many others, especially in outstate and the exurbs, will feel the same way.

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by: The Caped Composer @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 21:41:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

history

But they elected a loud mouth wrestler with no experience to be their governor so I think that perhaps they are capable of overlooking entertaiment and the real life.

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by: IndyDem @ Sat Jul 12, 2008 at 21:54:00 PM CDT